Thursday, November 5, 2015

Snowbird Fall Migration: Weather, Weather, Weather

The life of a snowbird. 

We arrived in Hingham in early May and within a few weeks had already chosen November 1st as the target date for returning to Sarasota. Why set a date so quickly you ask and what about the weather, which as readers know is the cruising variable beyond our control? 

The early selection of the target date is easy to understand. We need to line up crew for the voyage and our volunteers need to have to have time to plan their schedules (which includes possible down time for weather).  

The weather is always a challenge.  We need a good enough weather window to enable us to optimally cruise from Hingham to Stuart in seven days and six nights on the North Atlantic Coast.

Explanatory Note: Even with less than perfect weather, we can still safely make the trip using inland waters, which comprise well over  of the 1200 of the 1450 miles to Stuart.  However, each time we “duck in” we increase the length of the trip by increasing the distance and eliminating night running.  Inland waters north to south: Long Island Sound, Delaware River, Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway.

Why the hurry you ask?  Three simple answers.  November is not exactly prime time for port to port cruising, we have a car to move and our insurance company does not want us south of Cape Hatteras before November 15.  Oh, did I mention the Furry Kid? Kodi refuses to eliminate on the boat and that would restrict us to day cruising, which combined with the ups and downs of weather would make for a 30 day trip to cover the distance (about 1,700 statute miles).  It would also add needless expense.  Add to that the fact that we would be sleeping in port while the good weather "goes away" and it's easy to understand our "move the boat" strategy.

Explanatory Note: Our insurance company gives us special dispensation with regard to crossing Cape Hatteras before November 15 if there are no tropical storms in our path and we accept a higher (six figure) wind deductible.

Two Hingham Shipyard friends signed on early for the cruise south, which quickly eliminated challenge #1.  Both are experienced boaters.  Skip Roper, a boater from I-dock, and his wife Jan have a 31 foot single engine Eastern Trawler.  Guy Aries has both a boat at the marina and his captain's license.


Diana, Skip and Jan at the Hingham Yacht Club
Now to the weather.  I watch the weather every day and consider myself a student of weather.  I am always calculating whether the conditions could be used as the seven day weather window we need. Surprisingly, these windows occur frequently all year.  As the time draws near for departure (approximately10 days out) I start predicting whether the weather will be "good enough" (waves 3 to 5 foot or better) for the targeted cruising period.

Hello Hurricane Patricia.  This remarkable Category 5 hurricane (i.e., sustained winds over the 155 MPH minimum), the strongest on record (with gusts to 247 MPH), hit the southwest coast of Mexico on October 23rd, 60 miles north of Manzanillo and south Porta Vallatra.  It then diminished quickly into a tropical storm (thank you mountains) and headed northeast through Texas, along the Gulf and then up the Ohio Valley.  It cleared out a lot of weather, especially in New England where we had seven days of high northeast winds due to a Bermuda High that stalled a cold front along the coast.

The passage of Patricia’s remnants caused me to move up the departure date to Saturday, October 31.  Three days earlier, it was clear that starting on Saturday, I had a six day weather window as high pressure formed on the eastern US with low winds and calm seas all the way to Stuart. Those conditions were still in place on Saturday morning.


High Pressure dominates the east coast
Siruus wind and waves prediction
Dark blue represents calm seas under 2 feet
Intensiity changes as colors move from blue to light blue light green, green, etc to red

Written by Les

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