NOTE TO READERS: I've had this article ready for several days but could not publish due to lack of internet connectivity. The first part of the story anticipates what we think is going to happen and the second parts is what happened.
THE PLAN:
Thursday, November 3:
Weather, weather
weather.
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| Wednesday at midnight - A cold front stretches from New York to Texas |
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| Thursday at midnight - The cold front approaches North Carolina with light rain |
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| Friday at midnight - The cold front has passed Cape Hatteras |
As we cross the
Chesapeake Bay and approach Cape Henry (Virginia Beach area) with the threat of
heavy weather we face a critical decision. Stop at Virginia Beach and wait for
the front to pass (possible 3 day delay), head down the ICW from Norfolk to
Morehead City (3 days for sure. More if the Alligator River Bridge is shut down
due to 30 knot winds) or proceed to Hatteras on the outside (24 hour passage to
Morehead City).
We know we will arrive
at the east end of Diamond Shoal at 1:00 AM on Friday, well before the front
arrives. Below is the forecast for Cape Hatteras as of 6:00 PM. The forecast
for tonight calls for seas 2 to 4 building to 3 to 5 with a dominant period of 10
seconds. This is very favorable. By morning the winds will have built to 30
knots with seas reaching 6 to 9 feet. This was the case in November 2014 when I
went south with Dick Singer and Phil Fuoco. Stated another way. I've seen this
movie before and it is not pretty.
Looking
forward to Friday night you can see the 6 to 9s subsiding to 5 to 7. So
stopping at Virginia Beach at noon on Thursday would have produced a three day
delay while we wait for Cape Hatteras to calm down.
WEATHER FORECAST – CAPE HATTERAS
Synopsis: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Thursday Night
SW winds around 15
kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 3 to 5 ft.
Dominant period 10 seconds...decreasing to 5 seconds late. A slight chance of
showers late this evening. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms
after midnight.
Fri
N winds 20 to 25
kt...increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft...building to 6
to 9 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 5 seconds. Showers likely with a
slight chance of tstms in the morning.
Fri Night
N winds 25 to 30
kt...diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft...subsiding to 5
to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 6 seconds.
The run from Cape Henry
to Morehead City is actually more than just going out to sea 13 NM to go round
Diamond Shoal at Cape Hatteras (which is actually 33 NM from the west shore of
Pamlico Sound – a sizeable amount of fetch). Once clear of Diamond Shoal the
next obstacle before arriving at Morehead City is Cape Lookout, where a second
shoal so named extends out to sea 9 NM south and east. There are no marked
crossings. Short cut this one at your peril (as the bottom does move around).
Cape Lookout Shoal is
over 40 miles south of Diamond Shoal. Add another 10 NM if you run northwest
toward shore after rounding Diamond, then run along the coastline and then,
finally, head out along the north edge of Cape Lookout Shoal.
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| Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout |
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| Cape Lookout Shoal |
There are also no usable
inlets along the 212 nautical miles between Virginia Beach and Morehead City.
Therefore, once you start this leg you are more or less committed. Yes you can turn around and head back but
that comes with its own set of challenges especially when a front is moving
north to south.
So, the weather at Cape
lookout Shoal must also be considered before proceeding on this leg. Remember,
Cape Hatteras is affectionately know as the graveyard of the Atlantic.
WEATHER FORECAST – CAPE
LOOKOUT SHOAL
We will arrive at the Morehead/Beaufort
Inlet at approximately 11:00 AM on Friday. The forecast calls for winds of 20
to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots in the afternoon with seas 3
to 5 feet. On the surface this looks threatening. However, a wind out of the
north produces a following sea. A following sea with 3 to 5s is easily doable.
Another factor to
consider. The forecast for the coastal waters south of Morehead City after our
“pit stop” called for 25 to 30 knot north winds with 6 to 9 foot waves offshore
and 3 to 5s close to shore. This is depicted in the sea conditions photo below.
So weighing all the
factors we democratically decided to “go for it.”
WHAT HAPPENED:
At 12:30 PM we plugged
in the Virginia Beach to Beaufort route and began the passage with winds out of
the southwest at 7 knots and seas at less than one foot. Conditions were so
good that we operated from the flybridge for 3 hours in 72 degree sunny weather.
Back in the pilothouse at 6:00 PM we noted west southwest winds at 14 knots
with seas less than 1 foot. A gourmet dinner followed.
By 11:00 PM winds had
built to 21 knots (still of out the southwest). We estimated seas at 2 to 4
feet. Rounding Diamond Shoal at 2:00 AM Friday, we noted a 3 to 5 foot head sea
off the port bow. Wind speed and direction had not changed. The words “very
stable ride” appear in that log entry.
Given the stability of
our ride we elected to go directly to the tip of Cape Lookout Shoal saving 9.3
NM by not heading in to shore. We noted at 6:17 AM that the wind had shifted to
the north at 23 knots and waves had built slightly to 4 to 6 feet.
A communication between
the Coast Guard and a 44 foot sail boat south of our position got our
attention. The captain reported the boat hard aground and taking on water. He
also reported injuries. The Coast Guard was sending a cruiser, a chopper and a
(Sea Tow) tow boat. We never learned any more.
The fat lady screamed
(well OK, the front passed): Log Entries:
 |
| Wind graph showing the trend line leading up to the frontal passage |
·
08:38: Heading direct to
the tip of Cape Lookout Shoal. CRS 242. Wind NE 28 to 35 knots
with gusts to 40. Seas 7 to 9 with an occasional 10 to 12. We are 14 NM southeast of the shoal.
·
0 9:06: Barometer rising
from 29.96 to 30.06. The front has passed.
 |
| Frontal passage |
· 10:20: Direct WP
(waypoint) 477 around the end of the shoal. CRS 222. Winds
33 knots gusting to 40. Following sea 8 to 10 occasionally 12.
 |
| High seas - photo does not due it justice |
No fun for better than
two hours. By 11:57 AM we were on the south side of Cape Lookout Shoal with the
Morehead/Beaufort Inlet about 9 NM ahead. Winds were still howling at 33 knots
from the north but seas had subsided. We were now in 3 to 4s owing to the
shelter proved by the shoal against the north wind. We entered the inlet at
12:45 PM.
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| Forecasted 3.6 seas at the point we are experiencing 8 to 10s |
So what happened? NOAA
got the wind and sea part of the forecast right. They totally blew the timing.
Essentially the front passed quicker than expected. Mind you, I’m not blaming
NOAA. We made a decision and took a calculated risk. Factored into that
decision was a cost benefit analysis. If it all worked out we would be south of
the Cape(s) with a favorable north wind and a following sea on our tail and
clear sailing to Florida. A second consideration was my experience with the 63.
The 63 has seen 10 to 12s before and on different points of sail and handled it
well.
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| Forecasted sea conditions showing a narrow path along the coast |
We arrived at Morehead City Yacht Basin at 1:30 PM with the goal of refueling quickly and getting back on the road within 2 hours.
Stay tuned for the next adventure. Pit Stop then Express Stuart.
Data Hingham to Morehead City:
Stay tuned for the next adventure. Pit Stop then Express Stuart.
Data Hingham to Morehead City:
- Distance Traveled: 643.1 NM
- Average Speed: 8.1 NMPH
- Time Enroute: 80 hours
- Fuel Purchased: 872.2 gallons
- Price per Gallon: $2.18 plus tax
- Fuel Cost: $2029.74
Written by Les.
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