Southbound 2017: What a Difference a Day Makes

This is the first in a series of articles chronicling our annual trip south to our Sarasota winter haven. It starts with weather, most important consideration.

A little background. The United States Weather Service (www.weather.gov) only provides weather forecasts for 6 days out.  Hence, a week before our official November 1 departure, I start to focus intently on conditions. At that point, the only useful data is for October 31, and that data is highly subject to change. NOAA does a great job and over the years their forecasts have become more and more reliable. The science seems to be improving.

This year, the forecast did not look good. There was a tropical depression in Central America that was predicted to become a tropical storm and perhaps a hurricane. The predicted track, after the storm moved offshore, took it over Cuba and then south Florida. That track increased the potential that the storm might follow the coast to New England, and at one point, NOAA had the storm pointed directly at Massachusetts. Not good.

NOAA overview page showing dismal East Coast weather

From there the weather story gets worse. As the week leading to departure progressed, NOAA was predicting a very deep (i.e., tropical storm deep) low forming southeast of New York. That low was predicted to track north slowly into northern New England and then into Canada. Powerful 25 to 30 knot southeast winds with gusts to 60 were forecasted for Sunday at Hingham. 

Monday’s forecast called for a frontal passage in the morning with strong sustained winds out of the west, with again, 60 knot gusts. Forecast for the coastal waters south of Buzzards Bay along the south shore of Long Island were for 15 to 20 foot seas. Additionally, high winds were predicted for Tuesday with high seas along our route diminishing toward evening. This did not bode well for a Wednesday 6:00 AM departure even though NOAA was predicting calm winds.

NOAA got it right, literally to the hour. Sunday we saw sustained southeast winds as predicted and gusts to 40 knots. Monday saw the frontal passage at 10:00 AM with 50 knot gusts and a 12 degree temperature drop.  Tuesday was breezy. Then we woke up Wednesday to calm winds and flat seas.

Now to the tropical depression lingering on the east coast of Central America. It freed itself from the mountains, accelerated to 40 knots and became tropical Phillipe. It then tracked north to Cuba and then out to the Bahamas and finally out to sea just south of Florida, where it died. Threat eliminated.

With the deep low far north and Tropical Storm Phillipe no longer a factor, a weather window opened up along the entire east coast. We departed Hingham at 5:42 AM on Wednesday, hit the Cape Cod Canal at 11:09 AM with a favorable 4 knot current, and then reached Wings Neck at the west end of Buzzards Bay at 2:40 PM. A glorious cruise on flat water.

Decision time. Should we proceed south along the coast to our Morehead City destination, some 643 nautical miles south, or take a straight shot from Wings Neck to Cape Hatteras’ Diamond Shoal, a distance of 431 nautical miles and then another straight shot to Cape Lookout and then on into Morehead City? Drawing the straight lines knocks approximately 6 hours off the trip. That represents approximately 50 nautical miles and 54 gallons of fuel saved.

The direct line option takes us over 100 miles off the coast for over two days. This option requires a favorable offshore forecast, the right equipment, a well maintained boat and a crew comfortable with an element of calculated risk. Those of you who follow this blog know that equipment and maintenance are not an issue. So now it come down to weather and crew.

This year’s crew consists of Captain Guy Aries and my friend Jim Eisenhauer. Guy has made three trips with me (Nov 2015, Nov 2016 and May 2017). He’s experienced the full range of cruising situations from calm seas to raging storms. Jim is new to the experience but a fast learner. Again, as readers know, I fully discuss weather considerations and associated risks and make go/no-go decisions democratically.

Jim grabbing a sunrise photo

One of 5 spectacular sunrises

The weather forecast for the offshore waters between Montauk Point (Long Island New York) and Cape Hatteras showed 2 to 4 foot seas with a worst case of 3 to 5 footers and winds from a low to 5 knots to a high of 20 knots. Most important, no storms were in the forecast through Monday. Given that we would reach Morehead City on Saturday morning we had a two day margin of error. Our decision. Let’s go for it.

Again NOAA’s forecast was dead-on accurate.  On Wednesday night we saw seas reach four feet and then subside on Thursday afternoon.  The result was smoothest ride I’ve ever experienced in the four years and seven runs up and down the east coast.  We witnessed beautiful sunsets and sunrises and mostly smooth seas.  What a pleasure.

Before Sunrise on Wednesday morning

Sunrise

We pass Minot's Light, Cohasset, Massachusetts.
Minot's sits in open water

Speeding through the Cape Cod Canal on a favorable current (4 knots at times) 

We arrived at Cape Hatteras’ Diamond Shoal on flat water at 4:56 PM on Friday. That is a rare occurrence.

Direct Cape Hatteras
Notice that we are off the continental shelf (deep water)

All is not gold that glitters. The time savings had a consequence. It resulted in our arriving into Morehead City at 3:00 AM. Fuel docks usually open at 8:00 AM. Hence, we would have “blown” our entire time savings sitting on their dock. Not efficient.

Decision time again. Do we sit at the Morehead City dock or continue further south? For me this is always an easy decision. Why waste good weather sitting at a dock? You know that eventually it will change for the worst.

This time the decision was easy. We already had a forecasted two day favorable weather margin and that situation had not changed. NOAA was now predicting northeast winds with 3 to 5 foot seas all the way to Florida. That that translated for us into a following sea with a tail wind.

We also had more than enough fuel. On Friday afternoon I had transferred 248 gallons to the main tanks. Adding that to the fuel remaining resulted in 735 gallons of fuel on board, with better than 95% usable (based on actual experience during the record 2017 run north in May) we easily had 695 gallons of usable fuel.

Next concern. Where to get fuel? This is actually a tricky question. Yes, there are plenty of fuel stops on the way to Florida but some, like Georgetown, where fuel is incredibly cheap, are way off the beaten path (i.e., add 2 hours of travel time to reach the marina, 2 hours to fuel and 2 hours to return to our course). Others are eliminated by time. We have to arrive during business hours if we want fuel. And, finally, there is the fuel cost consideration. Some marinas think their fuel is very valuable and charge accordingly. For example, I saved over $1,300 this June between the price at Rose Marine and the local marinas in Hingham ($2.00 versus $3.29 per gallon).

Fernandina Beach Florida to the rescue. Its 400 nautical miles from Cape Hatteras, well within our remaining usable fuel range (including generator use), easy in and easy out, and its fuel is reasonably priced.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The weather window to the north had already closed when we reached Cape Hatteras.

Before I continue, let me briefly highlight our incredible 5.5 day journey (using military time):

• Wednesday 05:41 depart Hingham
• Wednesday 11:09 arrive at the Cape Cod Canal - zip through canal at 12 knots
• Wednesday 14:40 arrive west end of Buzzards Bay - straight line to Cape Hatteras
• Friday 16:56 arrive at Cape Hatteras's diamond Shoal - straight line to Cape Lookout
• Saturday 00:36 arrive at Cape Lookout - straight line to Cape Fear
• Saturday 09:49 arrive at Cape fear - straight line to Fernandina Beach
• Sunday 12:46 arrive at Fernandina Beach Inlet - straight line to St John's River Inlet

We make a straight line down the coast. A first
Approaching St Mary's Inlet and the Fernandina Beach Municipal Marina

At 12:46 PM we turned southwest into the St Mary’s River and called the Fernandina Beach Municipal Marina to alert them of our intention to take on fuel and our arrival time. Oops. Big Surprise! The dockmaster informed me that they had “still” no fuel thanks to Hurricane Matthew (September 2016).   The dockmaster stated that Port Consolidated had fuel but they were closed on Sunday. When I asked if we could stay the night he informed me the Matthew had destroyed their face dock and that besides being “no room at the inn” there was not enough depth for the 63’s five foot draft.

This posed a bit of a problem. A quick check of the site glass on our tanks showed fuel remaining of 290 gallons, with 250 usable based on experience. That translates into an absolute range of 250 nautical miles. So while the situation is not desperate, it did suggest that we find fuel close by or anchor out at Fernandina.

Fortunately, the St John’s river approach to Jacksonville was 20 nautical miles south and there are several marina’s just west of the inlet (read as easy in easy out) and, most important, Morningstar Marina, the first one we called, had fuel and dock space. Time for a course change.

We pulled into Morningstar Marina – Mayport at 3:46 PM, took on 1,105 gallons of fuel at $2.79 per gallon ($3097.71), and in two hours we were back on the road.

This trip set new records:

Longest distance: 936 nautical miles (previous 766 NM – Spring 2017)

Fastest average speed: 8.8 knots

Longest passage: 5.5 days and 4 nights (previous 4 days and 3 nights – Spring 2017)

Longest passage without rough weather

Longest running time: 107 continuous hours

Distance from shore: Over 100 miles

Time without phone or internet connectivity (Wednesday evening to Sunday afternoon)

1

Factors that contributed to the unusually fast average speed of 8.8 knots
1) The Labrador Current (track from Buzzards Bay to Cape Hatteras
2) We close to the coast and west of the Gulf Stream'
3) A low pressure trough east of Florida and parallel to the coast set up the northeast winds

All trips should be so easy.

Stay tuned. We’re about to break another record.

PS. Yes, we had some adventures and those will be the subject of the next few articles.

Written by Les.