Today's Weather and Guided Discovery

The NOAA weather forecast for Sunday at 3:00 AM was for northeast winds 25 to 35 KT with gusts up to 40 and seas 9 to 12 feet on the open waters.  At 8:00 AM, NOAA showed the same winds but had upped their wave height prediction to 9 to 14 feet.  Their forecast was prefaced with "GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY."

Not good weather especially for a run  north along the Alligator River and across Albermale Sound. Further, with a gale warning in effect it is highly likely that the railroad swing bridge over the Alligator River will be closed making the passage to Coinjock impossible.  We decided to stay put.

The key to go/no go decisions is the ability to compare forecasted to actual conditions.  Is the weather behaving the way the forecasters said it will?  Guided Discovery is incredibly well equipped to deal with this critical comparison.

One extremely good decision was to equip the 63 with a weather station and two Garmin GMI 10 Marine Instrument Displays, one of which is used exclusively for weather.  This allows us to see what's going on where we are located.  Some of the most useful screens are displayed below.

Wind direction and speed at a glance

Wind speed, wind direction, temperature and barometer
This is the display we leave on all the time

Wind graph showing wind speed for the past 6 hours

The wind graph is probably the most valuable especially in a weather situation like today.  We set the graph last night for 6 hours and winds to 50 knots.  In the above photos, the digital readouts change constantly. The graph allows us to see the trend.  In the above graph you can see  the winds building as the morning progresses.  This is an indicator that the weather is behaving as forecasted.

We can get the NOAA weather forecast in one of three ways at the dock; from our computer, from our ipad and from the Garmin 15 inch multifunction displays.

Both Garmin multifunction displays showing Sirius Satellite Weather

Forecasted high and low pressure with fronts graphically displayed.  Note the low pressure area off South Carolina

Sea conditions showing wind direction, wind speed, wave height and wave direction

In the above photo wave heights are displayed in color to note activity in an area. The colors change from light blue (calm water) to deep magenta (waves 30 feet or more).  Wave direction is shown by arrows. Specific wave heights are obtained by tapping on a red arrow.  In the photo above the wave height at the encircled "X"  are 13.1 feet.  Another indicator that the wave action is behaving as forecasted.

Precipitation occurring at the moment (lousy photo)

Using Sirius Satellite Weather we can get the forecasted highs & lows, fronts, wind direction, wind speed, wave heights and wave direction from right now and for the next two days in 12 hour increments.  This allows us to gauge the trend.  Most important, we can get this information while underway and out of cellular signal range, which is critical for long range cruising.

At the dock we are now using NOAA (www.weather.gov) rather than Weather Underground, which tends to dumb down the data.  NOAA tells it like it is and the site is more robust.

Additional data that we can get in cellular range is from a great ipad application called Buoy Data.  While hard to see in the photo below, we can tap on the buoys for each state.  The buoy's are listed with their locations. Tap on one and it gives you the location on the map in addition to the latitude and longitude. This is particularly helpful especially for cruisers like us.  NOAA display buoys with the name of their location, which is great for locals but difficult for cruisers transiting an unfamiliar area.

In the photo below we are looking at the data for Duck Pier NC.  The map shows the buoy on the Outer Banks north northeast (NNE) of Albermarle Sound in relation to our location in Belhaven.  This data is particularly critical for us this morning as it provides a good indicator of the winds that are likely to effect our transit in the open 30 mile stretch of the Albermarle Sound where we would be headed directly into the wind.

The data at 8:30 AM shows the following:

• Wind direction: N (10 degrees)
• Wind speed: 26 knots
• Wind Gust: 31 knots
• Atmospheric Pressure: 30.11 inches (1019.7 mb)
• Air Temperature: 51 degrees Fahrenheit (10.5 degrees Celsius)
• Water Temperature; 49 degrees Fahrenheit (9.3 degrees Celsius)

Data for a buoy critical  to our decision making on whether to stay or go

The 63 could easily handle the 3 to 5 waves that we would encounter late in the afternoon (assuming they didn't close the swing bridge) on the 30 mile stretch of Albermale Sound.  However,  we would be taking the waves head on (i.e., off the bow). We would experience some pitching and a lot of spray.  Slightly uncomfortable but not unsafe. That said, docking could be a problem as the 63 presents a "barn door" and with winds at 25 to 30 knots she would be pushed around.  I suspect that the thrusters could neutralize their effect but would not move us very quickly.

Meanwhile as we sit here in Belhaven at Dowry Creek Marina we are pinned to the dock by the northeast wind.  We have four fenders taking the load.  Last night before going to bed at 3:00 AM and this morning at 7:20 I needed to adjust the fenders.  I do not know how to calculate the effect of wind pushing close to 85,000 pounds of boat but I can state that I can barely move the 63 in zero wind.

To adjust the fenders I needed to turn on the engines as the hydraulic bow and stern thrusters are driven by the engine's power take-offs.  I was actually able to adjust the fender solo using the Glendenning Remote Control. Holding the remote in one hand and the fender line in the other I was able to re-position the fenders.

Important Lesson:  When I tied up on Friday I put out two fenders positioned horizontally against the pilings. This was clearly inadequate in light of the forecast.  The result was that as the tide change the fenders slipped out of place and the rubrail contacted the piling.  Bad luck.  The metal bolt head (smooth and round) that hold the piling in place made contact with the rubrail and slightly damaged the fiberglass (but fortunately not the rail itself.  This could have been a lot worse..  Not a big deal but it served as a reminder that I have to be vigilant and constantly think ahead.

Written by Les.